Unqualified Offerings

The Redskins won a game today but there will be commentators trying to punish them for it – actually, color commentator Daryl “Moose” Johnston already did. With just under five minutes to go in the game, facing fourth and a foot at their own 25, Steve Spurrier had the Redskins go for it. Failing would have left Seattle with the ball in field goal range with a good shot at a touchdown. Even though the gamble worked, Johnston said as others will say, you can’t lose sight of the fact that it was a bad decision.

In fact, it was a jaw-droppingly good decision, as readers of the indispensible Hidden Game of Football, by Carroll, Palmer and Thorn have known for years:

In other words, any time a team is faced with a fourth-and-1 or even fourth-and-2, it should go for the first down (except in obvious situations where time remaining and score make a field goal mandatory). Actually, this applies even to punting, but the coach who will call for a run in a close game with fourth-and-2 at his own 10 has never been born. Statistically, we can demonstrate that a team would come out ahead, but we can’t factor in a coach’s ulcers.

I won’t go through the math – get the book for that – but Carroll et al apply “field position theory” to the problem, and factor in the chances of converting short-yardage plays. (CliffsNotes: Kicking a field goal with less than 6 yards to go for a first down always represents a failure of nerve rather than wisdom. Punting on very short yardage is pointless even if you’re backed up.)

Johnston and announcing partner Dick Stockton made much of a failed attempt at fourth-and-one at their own thirty called by Barry Switzer against Philadelphia when he was coaching the Cowboys a few years ago. That’s what we call an anecdote. It’s not dispositive, and the Redskins have now given us a countervailing anecdote anyway.

The Redskins made a good decision and it paid off. (The specific play call, a delay run, may have left something to be desired.) Had they punted, Seattle would have had good to excellent field goal position and a chance to chew up most of the rest of the clock on their way to a touchdown or field goal. That would have put Washington in a two-minute drill, with Seattle free to play pass only and ignore the run. Had Washington missed, Seattle would probably have gotten their touchdown or field goal, but left much more time on the clock for the Skins to come back. As it was, they converted and may have enjoyed a certain boost in morale from doing so. You can argue with results, but not this time.

UPDATE: Virginia Postrel has been here too. Eric of Off Wing Opinion demurred, but his argument is weak. (”Madden made sure his programmers corrected” the game logic relating to fourth down, per Eric. But Eric gives no reason to believe that Madden didn’t simply arbitrarily build a faulty conventional wisdom into his software.)

Here’s the paper Postrel and Eric were working from. (Link is pdf.) It postdates Carroll, Palmer and Thorn by 15 years.