Seems Like Old Times
Yglesias and Drum are doing some tracking of Iraq’s electricity production. Time was we did a little of that here. And Matt points me to yet another resource (PDF) for Iraqi production metrics. (Since the CPA changed its name and stopped putting out the good stuff – the daily electricity production spreadsheet – I’ve stuck with the Saban Center’s Iraq Index.)
Couple things: 1. You know that passage from Garet Garrett about crossing the boundary between Republic and Empire and there being “no painted sign to say” when you are “entering Imperium?” Guys sitting around their homes in Washington, Maryland and California looking at electricity production data for a rathole 8,000 miles away is a sign. 2. We’ve now been in Iraq long enough to be able to compare annualized electricity production numbers. This too is a sign. Unfortunately the graph provided by the Dept. of State report Matt and Kevin are working from doesn’t go back far enough to compare season over season. For that one needs to go to page 24 of the Saban Center report, which lacks a graph but offers a table.
Avg. Daily Megawatt hours (thousands)
| 2003 | 2004 | |
| Aug | 72 | 110 |
| Sep | 75 | 107 |
| Oct | 79 | 99 |
| Nov | 70 | 77 |
The stated goal was 120K. No date is provided for meeting it, but the peak output production goals had dates in mid-2004 for the country as a whole and late 2003 for Baghdad. The numbers suggest that summer 2004 represented a substantial improvement in production, with regression throughout the fall toward 2003 levels. Peak output for the country as a whole shows a similar regression toward 2003 performance. It has only exceeded estimated pre-war levels (4400MW) for three months since the the US began tracking. Peak output for Baghdad, home to 20% of the population, can’t be annualized because the Saban Center doesn’t have figures for Oct-Nov 2003. But it has never gotten closer than 60% of prewar levels. Daily MW Hours for Baghdad are not tracked.
Saban Center began tracking Average hours of “electricity/day nationwide” recently enough that it can’t be annualized, but here are the numbers, Feb-Nov04:
13, 16, 15, 11, 10, 10, 13, 13, 13, 13
The string of 13s make me suspicious that, as so often when dealing with Iraqi statistics, we just haven’t got data for all the months.
Anyway, let me forthrightly acknowledge that whoever makes the power grid go was able to ramp up summer time (busy season) output, though not to goal levels. That’s good. What has been happening since appears to be less good.
