Unqualified Offerings

So how ARE things in Iraq? We turn, as we used to, to the Brookings Institution’s Iraq Index (pdf). In crucial ways, the answer turns out to be “not so good.”

Consider some infrastructure metrics. First, the ever-popular electricity situation, last discussed here in December 2004.

Whether you compare month-over-month or annualized performance, there’s been not just stagnation but regression in both nationwide and Baghdad-specific electricity provision. Peak output for first-quarter 2005 averages about 3600 megawatts compared to about 3900 for first-quarter 2004. The most recent three months represent roughly a 500 MW jump over fourth-quarter 2004, but a 1000MW drop over third-quarter 2004. Brookings lists an estimated pre-war figure of 4400 megawatts. In the two postwar years for which we have figures the CPA/Ministry of Electricity has exceeded that number for only three months. The initial goal was to have been 6000 MW by July 2004. Baghdad averaged about 1050 MW peak production for 1Q2005, versus about 1250 a year ago. (Note: January 2004 data not available. That compares with prewar levels of 2500 MW. Average hours per day with electricity nationwide comes in around 10 hours for the first quarter this year, versus about 14 last year (January 2004 data missing again). Daily megawatt-hours production nationwide averages 85K for the last three months, about where it was a year ago. (Fourth quarter 2004 outperformed fourth-quarter 2003, though, by about 9000 megawatt hours.) Average prewar production, 95,000. Stated goal, 120,000.

Oiiiiiiiiiiillllllllllllll! as the hawks like to call it:

Iraq’s average monthly oil revenues have been essentially flat since March 2004, with occasional spikes above or below an income of $1.4-1.6bn per month. When you recall that oil prices have climbed $20 a barrel in that period (DOE table), you start to suspect that Iraqi oil production and export has regressed rather than progressed. Indeed, in March 2004, Iraq produced 2.4 million barrels of crude per day and exported 1.8 billion, while in March 2005 it produced only 2.1 mbpd and exported but 1.4. On the bright side, comparing first quarters of 2004 and 2005, domestic availability of gasoline is up 33-odd percent, and diesel and LPG by smaller but significan margins. (Kerosene availability is sharply down.)

On the bright side, the index author’s estimate of Iraq’s unemployment rate has dropped from 30-45% last year to 28-40% this year. On the other hand, estimated inflation was running around 12% for the two most recent months available.

The figures on available equipment for the various Iraqi security forces run from 25-50% of need.

Bottom line: In terms of the numbers, there’s a lot of non-progress evident.