Unqualified Offerings

By coincidence, I was making essentially the same point Counterterrorism blog makes about Iraq War Phase IV training a new cadre of anti-American terrorists yesterday in an Outside the Beltway comment thread. In my words:

Actual history (Afghanistan in the 1980s and Chechnya in the 1990s) suggests a different likely course: At some point, one side or the other prevails in the local conflict. I’m betting on us, in concert with the Shiites and Kurds. This victory will not mean we’ve killed every anti-American radical who came to Iraq to fight. The survivors will form a battle-hardened cadre dedicated to renewing “the struggle” on their own terms after the fact. The training and networking of their Iraqi experience will prove very valuable toward those ends.

I might have added Bosnia and Kosovo, other training venues for contemporary jihadism. On top of the basic insight (you might prefer “worry”), Counterterrorism Blog makes a wish:

The U.S. government must remain vigilant not to allow history to repeat itself in this regard. While Iraq’s porous borders may have allowed the entry of thousands of foreign militants, the American military must ensure that these would-be terrorists face a much more arduous journey if they try to escape. The successful exfiltration of even just a few hundred of Zarqawi’s operatives from Iraq to a neighboring country like Jordan, Kuwait, or Saudi Arabia could result in a major wave of terrorism that would dwarf any comparisons to the 2003 Istanbul bombings or even 3/11 in Madrid.

As one of this blogs friends and critics is fond of saying, “And a pony!” Yes, the “successful exfiltration of even a few hundred of Zarqawi’s operatives from Iraq to a neighboring country like Jordan, Kuwait, or Saudi Arabia could result in a major wave of terrorism.” No, the US hasn’t really got a hope in hell of stopping exfiltration with enough effectiveness. The borders are what they are, the force level is what it is, and really, even a few dozen would be enough to cause major trouble down the line. Not “would,” alas. Will. The difficulty falls into “You should have thought of that before you left home” territory, and some of us did, but not the ones in charge.

It’s the flaw in both “flypaper” and “Democratic Peace” theories. The flies don’t all stick, and making a democracy by force here or there is beside the point: you’re also training the non-state actors that will afflict you.

CT Blog link via Logan and Praktike.