Gaming Bellona
Hurricane Pam. This FEMA exercise, which wargamed a catastrophic hurricane strike on Southeastern Louisiana, took place in July.
“We made great progress this week in our preparedness efforts,” said Ron Castleman, FEMA Regional Director. “Disaster response teams developed action plans in critical areas such as search and rescue, medical care, sheltering, temporary housing, school restoration and debris management. These plans are essential for quick response to a hurricane but will also help in other emergencies.”
LSU’s Hurricane Center, which would surely like to have the first paragraph of its own report on the Pam exercise back, informs us the exercise revealed that
From the simulation, officials estimate that a storm like Hurricane Pam would:
cause flooding that would leave 300,000 people trapped in New Orleans, many of whom would not have private transportation for evacuation; send evacuees to 1,000 shelters, which would likely remain open for 100 days; require the transfer of patients from hospitals in harm’s way to hospitals in other parts of the state; trigger outbreaks of tetanus, influenza, and other diseases likely to be present after a storm; create 30 million cubic yards of debris and 237,000 cubic yards of household hazardous waste.
LSU also reports on the action plan:
Those changes include:
assisting people without transportation – the American Red Cross is developing a program that would ask private citizens to collect people at area churches and transport them. identifying more than 700 shelters and planning the locations for the remaining sites. outlining patient movement details and determining how to set in motion existing immunization plans. establishing a command structure that would employ up to 800 searchers. identifying existing landfills capable of accepting hazardous waste and outlining debris removal plans.
The transportation plan seems like a good first step, but only that. Nothing about flipping inbound interstates, retasking public buses or commandeering private ones (using disaster moneys for compensation). It’s possible they left those out of the summary view, though.
Further note from LSU:
One important result of the exercise was the understanding among agencies at all levels of the seriousness of such an event. “A White House staffer was briefed on the exercise,†said van Heerden. “There is now a far greater awareness in the federal government about the consequences of storm surges.â€
On the bright side, even under the Bush Administration, FEMA and other agencies have continued to at least think about the problem. On the down side, that advance thinking seems to have done no good in coping with the real thing.
LSU would probably also like to rewrite part of its close:
Soon, agencies will have even more storm data to utilize in their response plans.
Some PDFs available from Google search.
Trackback by Political Animal —
September 2, 2005 @ 3:31 am
Evacuating the Poor
EVACUATING THE POOR….Why did so many people who lacked the means to evacuate New Orleans get left behind?Brian Wolshon, an engineering professor at Louisiana State University who served as a consultant on the state’s evacuation plan, said little att…
Comment by Tom —
September 2, 2005 @ 8:06 am
and all we hear from Washington is that no one could have foreseen it getting this bad.
No leadership, just excuses.
Comment by Greg Stroud —
September 2, 2005 @ 8:54 am
Not long after 9-11, several administration figures, most notably Condi Rice, described the attack as “unimaginable.” When the surplus turned to deficit, again, they told us that no one could have foreseen this turn of events. When Iraq became messy and it turned out that the administration had not planned for a long war, again they excused the situation as “unplannable” (Democracy is messy remember?). Now it is the same with New Orleans…
“Frustration rose yesterday as federal, state and local officials responded to what
many have described as an unimaginable disaster. Hampered by the lack of power,
communications and passable roads, exhausted officials became increasingly worried
about saving lives and getting help for those still stranded.”
Josh White and Peter Whoriskey
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, September 2, 2005; Page A01
It would be unfair to blame the administration for the Hurricane. But if this disaster, and all the other disasters, were so unimaginable,” then we need someone in government with a little more imagination.
Of course (as with Iraq), when things aren’t unimaginable, they are going swimmingly (yes I think that is perhaps the best word for it)…
From CNN…
FEMA chief: Victims bear some responsibility
Brown pleased with effort: ‘Things are going relatively well’
Thursday, September 1, 2005; Posted: 11:41 p.m. EDT (03:41 GMT)
and from the NYT…
“Speaking at a news conference in Washington, Michael Chertoff, the secretary of homeland security, said that the Superdome had “crowd control issues” but that it was secure. He referred to what he called “isolated incidents of criminality” in the city.”
Comment by Robin —
September 2, 2005 @ 9:26 am
“While his agency is facing harsh criticism, Patrick Rhode, FEMA’s deputy director, defended its performance as ‘probably one of the most efficient and effective responses in the country’s history.’”
-From NYT September 2, 2005
Sounds just like Iraq…
Comment by Greg Stroud —
September 2, 2005 @ 9:57 am
Michael Chertoff, Secretary of Homeland Security, following widespread eyewitness reports of refugees living like animals at the Convention Center: “I have not heard a report of thousands of people in the Convention Center who don’t have food and water.” (from Washington Monthly)
Comment by David in NY —
September 2, 2005 @ 10:25 am
A diary by valabor at Daily Kos yesterday documented the fact that a full 27% of New Orleans households had no car. How did they expect them, many being elderly or with young children, to get away????
Trackback by The Agitator —
September 2, 2005 @ 10:58 am
Government Fails
I find it refreshing that so many media figures are demanding accountability from government officials and at least recognizing the…
Comment by Ricardo Rocha —
September 2, 2005 @ 7:03 pm
I watched President Bush talking today to reporters in Mississippi and he was smiling all the time. I do not know what was so funy about this humanitarian crisis. Later First Lady Laura Bush talking about volunteering and she was all smiles. I can’t see how somebody can smile over
this tragedy.
Comment by tubino —
September 3, 2005 @ 6:16 pm
But a connected story lies in the firm that (privatization!) was contracted by FEMA to prepare for the disaster!
http://tinyurl.com/b2rvj
Read it! This is the big story about what FEMA was turned into. Half a million paid to prepare for exactly what happened — and the company has scrubbed its website!