Nobody’s Perfect
One dire prewar prediction of mine has yet to bear out, the “War of the Kurdish Suppression.” As Logan points out, the Kurds have done quite well for themselves so far and expect to continue doing so:
The [Kurdish] soldiers said that while they wore Iraqi army uniforms they still considered themselves members of the Peshmerga - the Kurdish militia - and were awaiting orders from Kurdish leaders to break ranks. Many said they wouldn’t hesitate to kill their Iraqi army comrades, especially Arabs, if a fight for an independent Kurdistan erupted.
The flashpoint could be Kirkuk. It’s an open question whether the Kurds will settle for a tacit independence that the Shiite ruling parties also accept; whether Iraq’s Kurdish groups insist on official independence and whether, if that happens, the Shiites - and their Iranian patrons? - try to stop them. (And what about the Turks?)It’s an even bigger question whether the attempt succeeds.
But the least likely thing to happen is what I expected, which was the US military suppressing a Kurdish secession by force. I don’t know whether we would if we could, but we pretty much can’t - we haven’t the forces to do it without using an awful lot of airpower. We’ve used a lot of airpower in Iraq over the last fifteen years, but bombing Kurdish villages seems like it could have political costs even this administration would fear paying.
Comment by John Emerson —
December 30, 2005 @ 11:45 pm
Peshmerga is such a cool name. Mysterious-sounding, but tough.
”Nobody expects the Peshmerga! Our weapons….”
Comment by Jim Henley —
December 30, 2005 @ 11:51 pm
Yeah, it sounds like the sort of thing upper-class British twits used to go crazy for, all manly and nomadic and primitive. I’m reading A Song of Ice and Fire, and ”Dothraki” is a cool name like that too. OTOH, ”Asshai” is a very unfortunate coinage to have to come up over and over.
Comment by dsquared —
December 31, 2005 @ 8:53 am
If the Iraqi Kurds seceded, then their first problem would be a massive refugee influx of hairy-arsed Turkish Kurds who they don’t really like and who would obviously bring with them all sorts of problems with the Turkish Army which has plenty of spare manpower and really very little purpose these days in doing anything other than being unpleasant to Kurds. I suspect they’re happy as they are, a de facto independent protectorate of the USA, and there will be time a plenty to ethnically cleanse Kirkuk when the foreigners leave and the oil is pumping.
Comment by Nell —
December 31, 2005 @ 5:52 pm
dsquared, others: Stephen Kinzer has an article in the NYRB on the situation of Kurds in Turkey now. He doesn’t foresee a rush to emigrate to the possible (likely?) new Kurdistan.
Comment by matthew hogan —
December 31, 2005 @ 9:51 pm
”Yeah, it sounds like the sort of thing upper-class British twits used to go crazy for, all manly and nomadic and primitive.”
We can go in the way back machine to a possible segment of Commander McBragg on the Underdog show:
McBragg: [Pointing to globe]: Thar! Mesopotamia! Did I ever tell you about the time I defeated 5,000 peshmerga using only a tea bag and a picture of Queen Victoria.
Butler: Really sir….that story just curdled the milk of human kindness.
McBragg: Quite.
Comment by Mr. Obscura —
January 4, 2006 @ 10:26 am
I’m reading A Song of Ice and Fire
My condolences. Is your affliction newly acquired or chronic? Mine is chronic, I’m afraid. When I used my Borders gift card Christmas present to buy ”A Feast for Crows” the clerk asked is I was one of the people who ’waited years for this one’.
Yep. That would be me.