I Was in the House When the House Burned Down
Is it true that most of Iraq is calm except for Baghdad and two or three other provinces, is it more like, as Eric Martin glossed swopa in comments here yesterday, “a fire engulfing a house, with an overwhelmed man racing from one end to the other wondering where to pour his lone bucket of water . . . ”
Let’s see:
In November, Mohammed was wounded in the head in Basra and spent two weeks in the hospital recovering. Although his attackers were arrested, Mohammed worried that he was still not safe.
“When security deteriorated in Basra, and any Sunni became a target, I was in a bad situation,” he said.
“My life was in danger so I decided to go to Mosul.”
…
Although Mosul seemed safe at first, a series of bombings in July shook his faith in the city. On Tuesday, a roadside bomb went off near a police patrol, injuring three officers and a civilian. In the afternoon, a suicide car bomb exploded near an American patrol, injuring nine people. There were also at least two confrontations between police and armed groups in the city, which left one officer dead and three more injured.
Although most of the bombings have targeted the U.S. military and Iraqi security forces, slayings of civilians are on the rise, and average residents are increasingly being blackmailed and threatened with death.
“Assassinations and blackmailing have increased at a dramatic rate,” said Falah Nassir, a 35-year-old Mosul lawyer. “About 30% of Mosul families are being blackmailed every day. This is abnormal.”
That’s from the LA Times yesterday.
The article adds that British efforts have recently calmed Basra down enough that some Sunni families, finding places like Mosul unsafe too, and needing work, have begun returning:
In Basra, residents say they are seeing the first Sunni families return to their homes. While the city cannot be considered safe — two Sunni former members of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party were assassinated Tuesday, for example — sectarian strife appears to be calming as the British military has managed to curb militia activity.
Note that the calming is in process, not achieved. The recent history of Iraq is full of things that appeared to be improving.
From the same article:
The U.S. military says violence in Iraq is concentrated in Baghdad, but statistics show that it has roiled the whole country. On Tuesday, the Ministry of Displaced People and Migrants announced that sectarian violence had displaced more than 27,000 families, about 135,000 people, up from 100,000 in June. The ministry said it was beginning an initiative to build tent camps in Mosul, Baghdad and nine other locations.
From VOANews, July 19:
But Father Tariq from Saint George Church in [the Christian town of Ainkawa, near the city of Irbil] says it is not just Baghdad Christians who are fleeing the violence. He says families came from Basra, Mosul and Kirkuk, as well as Baghdad. Altogether, about 700 families have come to the area.
Sally is a Christian from Kirkuk. She left the city about a year ago and came to Ainkawa. She says the situation in Kirkuk is very bad: there are bombs, explosions and kidnappings.
Randa is also from Kirkuk. She used to work at a church there, but fled two months ago. She says car bombers attacked three churches in the same day. “It was horrible, and we were afraid, so I left my job and my home,” she said.
Coalition forces called for air support in the vicinities of Baghdad, Karbala, Baqubah, Al Hawijah and Al Mahmudiyah, Kirkuk, Basra and Tall Afar, directing strafing and bomb runs from F-15E Strike Eagles, F-16 Falcons and Royal Air Force GR-4 Tornadoes.
Ar Ramadi remains closed due to ongoing coalition activity, and continues to be the focus of insurgent activity in Anbar province. Violence north of Diyala and Salahad Din remains focused in the ethnically mixed city of Mosul. Violence in the south has surged in northern portions of Babil province, although it appears to be uncoordinated. The bulk of attacks in Basra have reportedly been indirect fire. Outside of Basra, provinces south of Babil remain relatively quiet with some indications of increasing activity in the cities of Al Hillah and An Najaf.
From the conservative Human Events website, July 21:
Although such restrictions are not yet institutionalized in neighboring Iraq, Iraqi women-even non-Muslims-increasingly face a vicious campaign of intimidation and abuse by militias and gangs that seem to be taking over large swaths of Iraqi cities. In the southern regions around Basra, women have been stoned in the street for wearing makeup and murdered simply for going to work. Fatwas have been issued banning women from driving or from walking alone on the street.
An event in Basra that came too late to make Stratfor’s graph of fatal attacks:
The throats of a mother and her three children were slit in southern Iraq, where the family had fled to escape threats that they had cooperated with the Americans.
The mother’s sister was also slain in the savage attack in an apartment in the southern city of Basra, police said.
Five other family members were rescued before they bled to death.
Summing up: it looks like the “three or four provinces” are the ones where most of Iraq’s people and industry are to be found; the “quiet parts” are the parts where Shiite or Kurdish militias have established a level of dominance the Coalition and Iraqi government don’t care to challenge; and the notably optimistic Stratfor says that there are “some indications of increasing activity” in those areas.
I’m sure you can find quiet parts of Iraq. During the American Civil War, day to day life in Minnesota was largely peaceful; on any given day much of Virginia probably looked “relatively calm” for most of the war. But there was, all the time, a great big civil war. No one was stupid enough to think otherwise.
Comment by matthew hogan —
July 27, 2006 @ 8:17 am
You know during the American Civil War all but three states were calm most of the …. oh, (reading last paragraph), damn it, Henley, you said it first again, never mind.
Comment by Ugh —
July 27, 2006 @ 9:26 am
Darn it Jim, don’t you know all is sweetness and light in Iraq?
Comment by Jim Henley —
July 27, 2006 @ 9:33 am
Oh. My. God.
Comment by reader —
July 27, 2006 @ 9:42 am
Hey, electricty output is finally above pre-war levels! No wonder they were able to find so many recent pictures of children handing flowers to American troops.
Comment by John Emerson —
July 27, 2006 @ 10:15 am
Minnesota was hit by the Indian Wars during the Civil War. Ultimately, 50 Sioux were hanged. My home town was first settled in the 1850s, depopulated by flight, and then resettled after the war.
Your larger points are all good as far as I’m concerned. (But wait till Red State gets hold of this.)
Comment by Barry —
July 27, 2006 @ 10:39 am
Since no American towns have been depopulated, and we haven’t been attacked by the Sioux since Bush was elected, he *must* be doing a good job!
Comment by Jennifer —
July 27, 2006 @ 10:52 am
The last time I went to Washington DC I had a fabulous time, and not ONCE was I murdered. So all those people talking about DC’s high murder rate must be lying.
Comment by dsquared —
July 27, 2006 @ 11:50 am
Similarly, if you don’t count bacon, eggs and sausages I only had a piece of toast for breakfast.
Comment by radish —
July 27, 2006 @ 12:54 pm
Jeff Emanuel is a professional. I mean literally, not figuratively. Note his participation in the heroic rescue of Jessica Lynch. Also the fact that a reader points out that one of the statistics he quotes is just flat out wrong, and he acknowledges that, but then doesn’t fix it. Very amusing. I’d like to think that it says something about the condition of the base that somebody thinks the RedState commentariat isn’t capable of coming up with suitably convincing fairy tales on its own, without help from a paid flack.
Would it be irresponsible to speculate about whether any of the money that funded that article was provided by the taxpayer? It would be irresponsible not to.
Comment by Hogan —
July 27, 2006 @ 1:37 pm
Being terrorized and killed by sectarian militias rather than secular secret police makes you ever so much freer.
Comment by norbizness —
July 27, 2006 @ 1:38 pm
Redstate: Home of the freshest, newest, dead-enders.
Comment by Eric Martin —
July 27, 2006 @ 3:05 pm
Jeez Jim, I preferred my (Swopa’s) artful little metaphor to your parade of horribles. Why’d you have to go and get all ”factsy” on us.
Comment by Ugh —
July 27, 2006 @ 3:07 pm
I do love the comparison of electricity output from now to May of 2003, right after we just got done bombing the crap out of everything.
Hey! There are 10,000% more standing buildings now in Hiroshima than there were on August 8, 1945, look how great we’re doing!!
Comment by Ugh —
July 27, 2006 @ 3:07 pm
In the redstate link, that is.
Comment by Roach —
July 27, 2006 @ 3:36 pm
I supported the Iraq War initially, because I thought WMDs existed and they were a threat in the hands of Saddam. I’m happy that threat is eliminated, but even now it’s hard to say on balance the current situation is any better. After all, Americans are definitely today exposed to violence they would not if our forces were not in Iraq. And many Iraqis are exposed to violence, though I imagine that’s a wash considering the scale of violence in Saddam’s Iraq.
I’d be happier if the threat, if any, of Saddam were eliminated if it did not embroil us in an endless, forseeable, awful, pointless, baffling, and elusive war that our people, our government, and our military is totally unprepared to fight, for which we don’t have a strategy to win, and which every day exposes us to greater problems from Iran, al Qaeda, and other enemies of the US who see that our hands are tied in the most difficult and resource-intensive of wars.
The worst thing, though, as Jim points out is that there is so much failure to recognize reality on the part of those who initially supported the war, as if saying things aren’t going well and something needs to change is an implausible and shameful thing to utter in the midst of a dangerous time and a war, rather than the normal state of affairs among an honest and honorable people. Facts are always changing; it’s not deadly or even politically suicidal to say something needs to change, our earlier strategy must adjust to new facts. But our only strategy in Iraq is one of attrition and the imposition of a purely procedural ”hearts and minds” campaign that give the Iraqi government democratic legitimacy, even as it provides none of the things government should provide, such as basic security.
This debate is unfortunately too personalized. Supporters of the war, who have changed their mind, are often castigated for their earlier positions taken under different facts, as if changing one’s mind or adjusting one’s view is the worst of sins. And war critics are wrongly labeled as unpatriotic or defeatist, rather than supremely concerned for our fate as a nation.
What should be happening now–and is happening in some quarters–is a frank discussion about what to do today considering the stakes, the circumstances today, our earlier failures (and limited successes), and the largely immobile reality of American and Iraqi public opinion.
That said, good post, though so sad and depressing as is most of the news out of Iraq.
Comment by Anodyne —
July 27, 2006 @ 3:52 pm
Many milbloggers also argue that the mainstream media tends to overplay negative stories and play down positive military developments. For many of these blogs, says Mr. Borda, ”the sole purpose is to counteract the media.”
Cry Bias and Let Slip the Blogs of War
Comment by Jennifer —
July 27, 2006 @ 4:55 pm
It pains me as a libertarian to say this, but I think the only way to make the truth known is to elect a Democrat as our next president. That way, the people currently insisting ”things are just fine over there!” will glean to the idea ”Iraq (under a Democratic president) is a dangerous hellhole under American occupation.”
Comment by BruceR —
July 27, 2006 @ 8:51 pm
I was attacked by the Sioux yesterday. A couple times. While I was napping. Just goes to show.
Comment by matthew hogan —
July 27, 2006 @ 8:51 pm
I am not the Hogan above but I like his sarcasm. Anyway one wonder if the Redstate author and readers of this:
.. would have responded the same way to this:
Comment by Jim Henley —
July 27, 2006 @ 8:53 pm
We oughta do something about those Sioux bastards. What? We did? Phew!
Comment by Happy Jack —
July 27, 2006 @ 9:29 pm
I can’t believe the stupidity displayed here. Of course things are getting better.
Where do you think the death squads get the electricity for their power drills, from kites with keys attached?
Comment by Noumenon —
July 27, 2006 @ 11:40 pm
The May 2003 number for electrical production is clearly an estimate. It’s the first number in the chart and it only has one significant figure. The next month, June 2003, had production of 3193 megawatts. That’s the lowest real number in the chart.
Their endpoint, 4500 megawatts, was first achieved in July and August 2004. This is the first time since then that it’s reached that level.
There is no possible way to look at that chart and honestly report the results the way they do. Yet every conservative blogger I’ve argued this with came away unconvinced. Even Mickey Kaus didn’t respond when I told him it was a bad thing to link to.
Comment by BruceR —
July 28, 2006 @ 12:58 am
Hey, if all the power drillers would plug into alternative energy sources like that, think how much electricity they’d save!
Stay away from Iraqi houses with either wind turbines or rooftop solar collectors, that’s all I’m saying.
Comment by Rob —
July 28, 2006 @ 2:08 am
Look at all the energy being conserved by Iraqis! Those liberals always saying Bush has done nothing to fight global warming! He invaded an entire country, AlGore made a stupid movie! Who’s the real environmentalist?
Comment by Steve —
July 28, 2006 @ 7:27 am
”Even Mickey Kaus”? The man who keeps arguing that Plano, TX, is liberal because residents of the fifth most conservative city in America like movies he thinks they shouldn’t? Heaven forfend that he’d be disingenuous.
Comment by Walt —
July 28, 2006 @ 9:31 am
I was sorry to miss out on the whole Plano kerfluffle, since I currently live in Plano, and using that fact to win an argument online is the only upside.
Comment by Eric Martin —
July 28, 2006 @ 9:33 am
Happy Jack, I don’t know if I’m more disappointed in you for that dark humor, or myself for laughing so loud at it.
Comment by Barry —
July 28, 2006 @ 10:25 am
Just piling on, ’cause the SOB (Kaus) deserves it:
”Yet every conservative blogger I’ve argued this with came away unconvinced. Even Mickey Kaus didn’t respond when I told him it was a bad thing to link to. ”
Mickey Kaus’ whole business plan can be summed up as ’quisling former liberal’. He’s the guy who calls himself liberal, but is welcome to almost all right-wing parties, because he’s a strong basher of liberals, and a highly dishonest one. It’s a standard The New Republican technique.
Comment by Uncle Kvetch —
July 28, 2006 @ 12:38 pm
I was sorry to miss out on the whole Plano kerfluffle
Walt, you owe it to yourself to feast on LGM’s evisceration of The Mickster. Bon appétit!
Pingback by Mea Culpa, Mea Minima Culpa § Unqualified Offerings —
July 29, 2006 @ 9:41 am
[…] Culpa, Mea Minima Culpa The other day, Chris Roach, in comments here, tried to pour balm upon the waters: Supporters of the war, who have changed their min […]
Comment by Kip W —
July 30, 2006 @ 10:34 am
I hear we’ve developed a new smart missile that can paint a school from 350 miles away with minimal incineration. Why doesn’t the MSM report that?
USA!! Now 17% Better Than Saddam!