The Swallows Return to STUPID-CAPISTRANO
Looks like Ed Morrissey is the first blogging dog to chase the “brokered convention” stick this cycle. Usually it’s Kevin Drum. (Usually, Jim? There’s been, like, one presidential election campaign since political blogging exploded. And are you sure it was Kevin Drum? Did you look it up? You know what happened last time you got sloppy with your attributions. Shut up! It was so Kevin Drum!) Steven Taylor offers a thousand syllogisms where a belly laugh would do. Cliffsnotes: There will be no brokered convention next year.
(Dude, Morrissey isn’t even the first brokered-convention delusive this year. Michael Tomasky was probably the first, but who even knows if anyone preceded him this time around. God, you are one annoying cricket, you know that?)
Comment by the talking dog —
December 18, 2007 @ 11:13 pm
Jiminy!!! Is the Reform Party still around? Maybe they can have a “brokered convention”.
The fact is, we have “super duper Tuesday” this year for both Donkeys and Elephants. SOMEONE is going to go home with an awful lot of cookies from that February day, and with so few crumbs left to play for after it (and such a long road on which to play for them), only big fish will still be in the game… the early drop-outs (for Dems, that means, sadly, Dodd, and happily Biden, Richardson, Gravel and probably Edwards and for the GOP, happily Rudy and Tancredo, and less happilly Paul, McCain, and probably Thompson) will, as noted, pick a winner and throw their support there.
The fight may go on past Super Duper Tuesday… but not too far past it.
Comment by The Florida Masochist —
December 19, 2007 @ 9:17 am
A brokered convention won’t happen. The subject just gives pundits and bloggers something to write about.
BTW interesting conversation you were having. I’ve always it is all right to talk to one self. As long as you don’t start hearing that third voice.
Cheers,
Bill
Comment by Kevin Drum —
December 19, 2007 @ 11:20 am
Jeez, Jim, no need to go all the way back to 2003! I talked about a brokered Republican convention here, a mere two months ago. Sure, I didn’t say I actually believed it would happen, but we all know that’s just pundit CYA. I am so looking forward to the carnage.
Comment by Leonard —
December 19, 2007 @ 11:23 am
I doubt Ron Paul will drop out of the race. He won’t get the nomination, but he’s got the money to stay in the race through all 50 states if he wants to. (At his current burn rate I think he could stay in the race through the 2012 election.) So his persistence in the race is about his motives for running. Obviously he wants to put the USA back on the Constitutional track, and wants to use the R party as the vehicle for that. But I don’t see how that goal will be advanced in this race by a guy who drops out: there is no other candidate anywhere close to his views to carry that torch. Rather, by staying in even as the lesser evils drop out, he’ll increasingly get media attention and he’ll be able to bring his message of small government and federalism to the average American. He’ll get an increasing share of the disaffected R vote.
It will be interesting to see in the R convention how they deal with him. I don’t know what the rules are, so I can barely even speculate, but I’d guess based on previous conventions that Paul will get to address the gathering, which is probably another thing worth staying in the race for.
Comment by Jim Henley —
December 19, 2007 @ 11:25 am
Kevin: I’ll hold the football and you come running up and kick it . . .
Comment by Tom Scudder —
December 19, 2007 @ 11:29 am
Seems kind of like the political pundit version of “who’d win, Thor or Superman”? (Or Enterprise D vs. Super Star Destroyer). Basically harmless fun as long as no one takes it seriously.
Comment by lemuel pitkin —
December 19, 2007 @ 1:33 pm
The post and all the comments are correct. I wonder how long that can go on for.