Unqualified Offerings

By Thoreau

Some reporter on CNN was just gushing about how insightful Petraeus was during an interview (he also said, BTW, that the most insightful parts were the parts not aired, making me wonder why they picked the less insightful parts to air).  According to the reporter, one of the great insights offered by Petraeus was that Iran has a lot of influence in Iraq, even at the highest levels of power, and if we leave Iran will have even more influence in Iraq.

First, I should mention that this reporter recently learned that Iraq is hot and sandy, and he’s heard rumors that there might be some oil there.  He was also shocked to learn that Iraqis don’t celebrate Hannukah.

So I can see why he might consider it some great insight to hear that in a Shia-majority country adjacent to Iran there might be some significant Iranian influence.

Second, I don’t doubt that Iranian influence will, at least for a while, increase after/if we leave.  I certainly don’t consider that a valid reason to stay in Iraq, but it’s a point worth mentioning so we have a clear picture of likely scenarios.  However, at the same time, I have to wonder just how strong and/or lasting Iranian influence will be.  Iraq isn’t an easy place for foreigners to control, and while Iran’s religious government has some obvious influence among Shia Iraqis I somehow doubt that Iran will be able to get things from Iraq that Iraq doesn’t want to give it.  There is still a history of bad blood, there are ethnic differences, and even if religious kinship is enough for religious Shias the more nationalist Shias as well as Sunnis and Kurds will not exactly be thrilled with Iranian influence.

Iran’s influence in Iraq will probably manifest as a defter touch in manipulating than any sort of dominance.  Besides, if we really, REALLY dislike Iran, maybe we should just say to them “Here, YOU deal with this mess.”