War, children–it’s just a shot away
By Thoreau
I still think Doug M may win the bet, but I’m not going to write any checks before 12:01 am on September 1.
The potential for escalation became clear in early January, when five Iranian patrol boats, believed to be under the command of the Revolutionary Guard, made a series of aggressive moves toward three Navy warships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. Initial reports of the incident made public by the Pentagon press office said that the Iranians had transmitted threats, over ship-to-ship radio, to “explode†the American ships. At a White House news conference, the President, on the day he left for an eight-day trip to the Middle East, called the incident “provocative†and “dangerous,†and there was, very briefly, a sense of crisis and of outrage at Iran. “TWO MINUTES FROM WAR†was the headline in one British newspaper.
The crisis was quickly defused by Vice-Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, the commander of U.S. naval forces in the region. No warning shots were fired, the Admiral told the Pentagon press corps on January 7th, via teleconference from his headquarters, in Bahrain. “Yes, it’s more serious than we have seen, but, to put it in context, we do interact with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and their Navy regularly,†Cosgriff said. “I didn’t get the sense from the reports I was receiving that there was a sense of being afraid of these five boats.â€
Admiral Cosgriff’s caution was well founded: within a week, the Pentagon acknowledged that it could not positively identify the Iranian boats as the source of the ominous radio transmission, and press reports suggested that it had instead come from a prankster long known for sending fake messages in the region. Nonetheless, Cosgriff’s demeanor angered Cheney, according to the former senior intelligence official. But a lesson was learned in the incident: The public had supported the idea of retaliation, and was even asking why the U.S. didn’t do more. The former official said that, a few weeks later, a meeting took place in the Vice-President’s office. “The subject was how to create a casus belli between Tehran and Washington,†he said.
An Admiral who defuses a tense situation in volatile territory should be commended by his superiors. Assuming that his superiors are grown-ups.
Comment by Doug M. —
July 8, 2008 @ 2:40 pm
I have to point out that this is, once again, Sy Hersh.
I have a lot of respect for Hersh — but on this particular issue, he’s cried wolf. Repeatedly. See
http://americanfuture.net/?p=2817
– that cites five false alarms from Hersh in two and a half years.
I also note that this is at least the third time you’ve gotten your knickers in a twist over one of Hersh’s columns, either directly or via an intermediate cite.
Today’s quote, BTW, goes directly to why I offered this bet in the first place. But we can discuss that on September 1.
Doug M.
Comment by Iron Lungfish —
July 8, 2008 @ 4:59 pm
five false alarms from Hersh in two and a half years
“False alarms” how? Were George Bush and Dick Cheney not trying to start a war with Iran then? The buildup to Iraq took well over a year. The difference between then and now is that Bush and Cheney face considerably greater political opposition, both within and outside of the administration. The NIE dealt a huge blow to the Cheneyites last year, but they’ve done their best to make everyone forget about it in the intervening months, and the Democrats, whose nominee recently called Iran our “greatest threat,” haven’t been doing much to stop this.
Look at it another way: hawks in both parties talked up the possibility of a war with Iraq for years before the actual invasion – indeed, for years before 9/11. If someone told you in late 2000 (as someone told me) that American elites wanted war with Iraq, blowing them off as “crying wolf” would be the height of foolishness.
Incidentally, I don’t see why the bet window ends in September. Isn’t the relevant time period while Bush is still in office?
Comment by Doug M. —
July 9, 2008 @ 9:31 am
Lungfish, I’d be willing to make a side bet with you: no US attack on Iran before Bush leaves office. Fifty bucks, how does that sound?
But one can’t make a bet with a pseudonym. So if you want to do this, please contact me at “sigidunum”, in the doman of yahoo dot com.
Doug M.
Comment by Jay C —
July 9, 2008 @ 9:56 am
An Admiral who defuses a tense situation in volatile territory should be commended by his superiors
Except, of course, under the George W. Bush Administration: where such clear-headed and rational actions will probably lead to Admiral Cosgriff’s next “promotion” being placed in command of a squadron of LSD’s (Large Steel Desks) in the Navy’s Bureau of Drydocks or whatever.
Whatever Sy Hersh’s record on war scares may be, this crap just sounds too much like what we’ve (disgracefully) come to expect from the Bush regime to be total BS. More’s the pity.
Comment by Nell —
July 9, 2008 @ 11:53 am
@Doug M.: Yeah, it’s Sy Hersh, who through a series of articles has done as much to prevent war on Iran as anyone in the country.
In a situation in which the political opposition is weak to nonexistent, the only real barrier to that war has been some military and intelligence people, some of whom are using Hersh as a way to conduct their counter-efforts.
I’ll happily see you win your side bet with Lungfish.
Hersh’s reporting of the last six years on torture and detention would put him head and shoulders above 99% of the journalists out there, even if every bit of his Iran reporting turns out to be bullshit — which I very much doubt it will. The fact that Cheney and company are being checked does not mean they’re not trying to gin up a war.
Comment by Thoreau —
July 9, 2008 @ 11:59 am
Whatever Sy Hersh’s record on war scares may be, this crap just sounds too much like what we’ve (disgracefully) come to expect from the Bush regime to be total BS. More’s the pity.
While you make a good point, be carefull with any analysis predicated on “Oh, it sounds so true it’s just gotta be true!” A lot of people felt that way about WMD in Iraq….
Comment by Doug M. —
July 10, 2008 @ 5:12 am
Nell, that’s an interesting theory. Do you have any evidence for it?
I’m not snarking. It /is/ interesting, and it could be true, and if there’s evidence to support it I’d be fascinated. But I don’t know of any, so I’m wondering if this is anything more than your own personal spin on things. No offense.
Side bet: at the moment, there isn’t one — M. Lungfish doesn’t seem inclined. Which is his/her/its privilege.
Doug M.