A Weapons Inspector Weighs In
By Thoreau
Via the comments, former UN Weapons Inspector Richard Spertzel weighs in on the anthrax case. The short version of his article is that the weapon described by the FBI does not match the capabilities of Ft. Detrick, let alone a single unaided scientist. The greatest weakness of Spertzel’s analysis is that he accepts as true all of the FBI’s preliminary descriptions of the anthrax spores, and from this concludes that it was more likely a weapon of Russian design. I’m not sure that we should be accepting the FBI’s preliminary reports as true, given that (1) the FBI’s initial suspect got a big payout for what they did to his reputation and (2) even if this weren’t the FBI, preliminary reports are still rarely accurate.
However, at the same time, what Spertzel does show is that the FBI has offered a lot of different descriptions of the anthrax used in the attacks, not all of those descriptions are consistent with an origin at Ft. Detrick, and so it’s not clear why we should believe them now. Yes, there are always discrepancies between preliminary reports and more sober subsequent analyses. If the subsequent narrative had been more consistent, and the investigation more competent, I’d be more inclined to take them seriously. However, at the moment, we have an agency that has changed suspects without offering much evidence, and much of what we’ve heard concerning Ivins is alleged character issues (e.g. alleged homicidal threats and sorority obsessions) that are disputed by many who knew him. While it’s perhaps not surprising that his family and friends would dispute claims about an unstable personality, it would be nice to get past the character issue and into the physical evidence. Even if he was (for the sake of argument) an unstable man, that doesn’t mean he did what he’s accused of.
Comment by John Emerson —
August 5, 2008 @ 12:46 pm
I’m waiting for more information, but if I’m not mistaken Spertzel has a neocon axe to grind. And it was the WSJ editorial page.
What the FBI original release said was pretty specific, saying that the mix of strains in the mailed anthrax narrowed down the list of people who could have sent it.
Comment by First Little Pig —
August 5, 2008 @ 1:09 pm
After reading how the anthrax looked like it was ours but was actually better technology, I have determined that the culprits were….
Romulan.
Comment by Jonathan Schwarz —
August 5, 2008 @ 1:49 pm
I have no idea whether what Spertzel says about this is accurate, but he did use the WSJ page in 2004 to brazenly lie about the final CIA WMD report.
Comment by barrisj —
August 5, 2008 @ 7:43 pm
Today’s NYT story seems quite definitive in placing the anthrax source at Dugway/Ft. Detrick, i.e., US Govt. issue. However, inasmuch as dozens of people had access to the actual (lyophilized) toxin, the case against first Hatfill and now Ivins was/is woefully circumstantial at best. At this point (and throw in the Ron Suskind al-Qaeda/Saddam WH-inspired forgery), take the position, Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? You surely don’t have to be a conspiracy nut to work out that some pretty sinister people have been running a secret government these past 71/2 years.
Comment by priscianus jr —
August 5, 2008 @ 9:23 pm
“You surely don’t have to be a conspiracy nut to work out that some pretty sinister people have been running a secret government these past 71/2 years.”
And that, my friend, if it holds, is a major milestone in the evolution of our public consciousness. You didn’t have to be a conspiracy nut 7 1/2 years ago, either, but this anthrax thing has been so over-the-top that at least now you have a chance of being taken seriously.
Comment by Idi Amin's Last Meal —
August 5, 2008 @ 10:07 pm
President George W. Bush. Administration linked to anthractic dispersals to stimulate anti-Middle-East fervour. Admin. denies this.
John Bush, lead singer of Anthrax. Vowed not to change band’s name in wake of attacks.
Coincidence?
… Clearly, no, & Scott Ian is the mastermind of this.
Comment by John Emerson —
August 6, 2008 @ 1:34 pm
And that, my friend, if it holds, is a major milestone in the evolution of our public consciousness.
As a wrong-thinking person, I’m grateful to the Bush administration for forcing a lot of right-thinking persons to admit that they were wrong.