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Footballblogging

7 Responses to “Footballblogging”

1. Comment by ed —
   December 29, 2008 @ 12:37 am

   Passer Rating is the new Pitching Wins and Losses: a shitty stat.

2. Comment by Timothy —
   December 29, 2008 @ 10:19 am

   It’s worse that the Chargers are in at 8-8. The NFL should really just take the top 12 teams regardless of division or conference.

3. Comment by Doug T —
   December 29, 2008 @ 10:53 am

   The problem with just taking the top teams is that, with a 16 game schedule and 30 or so teams, it’s impossible to get even a rough fascimile of a balanced schedule. If you’re goingg to play a heavily unbalanced divisional schedule (and I think the nature of NFL rivalries makes this a smart way to schedule for the league), I think it makes sense to grant each division an automatic berth.

   This is only the 2nd time ever an 11-5 team has failed to make the playoffs, so it’s not like the curren tsystem is horribly flawed, with bad outcomes every year. It usually works, so in Burkean fashion, I’d oppose throwing it out and adopting a totally different method that could have uncertain outcomes.

   Also, mirroring a point often made about the BCS sytem, the real goal of the NFL playoff team selection process isn’t to pick the perfect best 6 from each conference, but rather to maximize interest in the NFL for the entire 16 week season. And the current system does a great job at that.

4. Comment by Ken Houghton —
   December 29, 2008 @ 1:25 pm

   Judging by the passer ratings, had the Jets simply stayed with Chad Pennington, no one would be in crisis over NE not making the playoffs.

   SD went 5-1 in their division, and lost that one only because of referee error in week two. It would have been much more of a crime to leave them out of the playoffs due to poor officiating than it will be for Indianapolis to destroy them on the road next week.

   Don’t get me started, though, on the AZ Cardinals.

5. Comment by joe from Lowell —
   December 29, 2008 @ 2:12 pm

   Looking at Jake Delhomme’s and Kerry Collins’ passer ratings on that list, it’s pretty clear that it’s a very limited way to judge a QB’s effectiveness.

   Maybe it’s more like strikeouts, ed – it’s only a good measure for a certain type of athlete.

6. Comment by Doug T —
   December 30, 2008 @ 2:01 pm

   QB rating isn’t a completely worthless stat, but neither is it all that conclusive. I don’t think there’s a while lot of statistical justification beihind it–it was just a random formula some guy came up with that would combine a bunch of passer stats together into a single number. I think its widespread use just shows how far behind baseball, and even basketball, football is when it comes to detailed statistical analyses.

   If I had the leisure time and resources (you’d need to pay for the most detailed stats breakdowns available), I’d love to spend my days trying to become the Bill James of football. There’s definitely a big hole there. By its nature, football is a lot less amenable to stat-based measures, but I think a lot more could be done.

   Anyway, if I wanted to evaluate a QB based on a single numberr, I’d probably pick 3rd down conversion percentage over passer rating. (Or, possibly better, the percentage of first downs which are followed by another first down or a TD from a pass–no reason not to give credit to a QB for getting a touchdown on 2nd down.) It’s also flawed, but it much more directly measures the ability of the QB at his job–moving the offense.

7. Comment by elbrucce —
   December 30, 2008 @ 11:34 pm

   D went 5-1 in their division,

   with a combined record of 15 and 33. This will be the first time I ever rooted for Peyton (and I live in san Diego).

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