Teh Faceless Hoards
By Thoreau
Something strikes me about most media coverage of the militants fighting the Pakistani government: Western media outlets don’t have a clue what this is about. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t have a clue either, but at least I’m aware of that fact.
All we really know is that some people in Pakistan, apparently religious fundamentalists from the northwest, are angry at the government and seizing control of territory. We are given little information about their leadership, their possible allies, or their stated agenda (other than something about religious law), much less anything about unstated agendas or grievances. They are apparently Pashtuns, but we don’t know if (1) they are getting support from other groups (e.g. Balochis) and (2) whether they are part of a broader Pashtun movement or whether they are as much at odds with other Pashtuns as they are at odds with the government.
We don’t know to what extent these fighters have support from inside Pakistan’s military and intelligence services. We do know that there’s a history of the military supporting various tribal fighters and religious fundamentalists to advance various agendas in Afghanistan and India, but we have been given very little info on whether the military is still backing these fighters. They might be backing the militants as part of some agenda, or they might be terrified that their former pawns have turned around and started marching toward the capital instead of marching toward foreign foes.
All we really know from most western media outlets is that some religious fundamentalists are pushing toward Islamabad. Beyond that, we are told nothing.
A few years ago Jim posted the theory that Pakistan’s nukes are being guarded by American soldiers. I really, really, REALLY hope that’s true. While I have often said that most governments with meaningful power are rational and self-interested rather than suicidal, the transition from fanatic with a vision of transforming the world in blood and fire to savvy political player does not happen overnight. It probably happens pretty quickly once the ring of power is on the finger, but (1) “pretty quickly” is not the same as instantaneous and (2) the guy who puts on the ring might become rational pretty damn fast, but the henchman he charged with guarding precious weapons might need more time to become contented in the new regime. Whether he’s got some sort of grudge, wants to cash in some spoils of war, or wants an insurance policy against possible purges, there are all sorts of things that can happen in a power shift.
Comment by Aresen —
May 9, 2009 @ 6:29 pm
As far as I can tell, Pakistan is moving from the “Trouble Spot” category to the Totally Fucked Nation category.
Like you, I have no idea what is going on. There seem to be dozens of factions with none clearly dominant.
With nukes thrown in, it is simply scary.
I suspect that the Indians have a contingency plan to take out the Pakistani nukes if things spin totally out of control. I doubt very much that Americans are guarding Pakistani nukes. There is far too much local pride in being an “Islamic” nuclear power to give the keys to anyone else.
Comment by Kolohe —
May 9, 2009 @ 7:09 pm
Here’s a pretty detailed interview with the current governor of the North West Frontier Province (who used to be gov of Balochistan). Parts of it are no doubt self serving, but I think it provides some real insights on how governance works (or does not) in his neck of the woods.
Comment by mattsmom —
May 9, 2009 @ 8:57 pm
I have heard on NPR that the northern area was suffering from lawlessness and a lack of a functioning justice system. The religious extremists offered to bring law, albeit Sharia. You can hear more of the story depending on where you get your news. By the way, I’m not saying that NPR is always fair and complete, or doesn’t editorialize in some of the reporting – Peter Overby, I’m looking at you plus the totally anti-Chavez guy who reports from Venezuela. Just that it does seem a bit better than the network or cable news.
Comment by Thoreau —
May 9, 2009 @ 9:09 pm
Aresen,
I suspect that if religious extremists take over and Indian special forces show up to take control of Pakistan’s nukes, they’ll trip over US special forces, Chinese special forces, and Iranian special forces (who have no desire to see Sunni Pashtuns gets nukes). And then they’ll all discover that they were pwned by a bunch of mobsters who have already taken off with the nukes are and currently counting their cash.
Comment by Aresen —
May 9, 2009 @ 11:08 pm
Thoreau
I wasn’t thinking “Special Forces”, I was thinking “Pre-emptive Nuclear Strike”, which thought scares the hell out of me.
Comment by HyperIon —
May 10, 2009 @ 10:19 am
This (and related recent posts there):
http://www.newshoggers.com/blog/2009/05/pakistans-antitaliban-offensive-some-context.html
Comment by joe from Lowell —
May 10, 2009 @ 7:33 pm
Great link, Hyperlon.
Comment by Gary Farber —
May 10, 2009 @ 11:08 pm
“Beyond that, we are told nothing.”
I don’t really fathom the assumptions here. News and facts aren’t something people get “told”; they’re things people find out for themselves.
You seem to have some presumption that a passive ignorant person will learn about Pakistan by being “told” by someone. But that’s not what happens. Either you make an effort, or you don’t. Either you make a more thorough effort, or you don’t.
And I find your writing on behalf of “we,” as I almost always do when people try to rope others in on their own POV, irritating. It bugs the bejesus out of me when people write in plural form, castigating “us” for some failing. Speak for yourself, please, not for me. Or address me, if you know that I share that failing. But don’t presume we’re all the same in what we do or don’t share with you, please.
“All we really know….” Me, I know a considerably more than this about what’s going on in Pakistan, because I spend a lot of time reading foreign policy journals and arguments; if you don’t, you haven’t made the effort. That’s fine. up to you. But blaming someone else for that, and claiming you speak for more than yourself in this, is really lazy.
I wonder what you’d think if I wrote the same about what “we” don’t know about physics.
Comment by Thoreau —
May 10, 2009 @ 11:14 pm
It’s a critique of the MSM, Gary.
Comment by Aresen —
May 10, 2009 @ 11:32 pm
Gary Farber:
Since you object to being lumped with the “we” in this case, I presume that means you understand what is going on in Pakistan.
Care to enlighten those of us who lack your sources/insignt? I presume you must speak the various languages of the country, since you have direct access to information that is not “told” to you.
Comment by almostinfamous —
May 11, 2009 @ 5:56 am
(reposting cause first comment eaten up by spam filter)
@Aresen – speaking as an indian in india, i highly doubt that our military has a) the necessary capability and b)the balls it would take to lob a nuke over into pakistan against all popular sentiment and finally c) there is no government with the authority to initiate military action right now due to on-going elections, the results of which will be positively bistromathic.
Comment by Barry —
May 11, 2009 @ 9:06 am
Also, the obvious problem with a pre-emptive Indian nuclear strick on Pakistani nuclear weapons would be that the odds strongly favor not getting them all. That leaves Pakistan with an even more chaotic set-up, probably several hundred thousand people dead (and the same amount hideously wounded), several nuclear weapons, and a *lot* of people who’ll be thinking in ways that make the USA on 9/12 look like Ghandian pacifists.
Comment by lunchstealer —
May 11, 2009 @ 10:29 am
Oy! Yeah, Pakistan is going to hell in a handbasket, and we’ve been getting non-stop Swine Flu coverage.
Actually, I can’t really speak to most of the MSM’s coverage, because I don’t end up seeing much of it.
Comment by Thoreau —
May 11, 2009 @ 12:58 pm
I somehow doubt that Pakistan’s entire nuclear arsenal is kept in a handful of above-ground locations that would be vulnerable to a nuclear strike.
Comment by Eric the .5b —
May 11, 2009 @ 1:41 pm
Especially by as few nukes as India has.
Comment by joe from Lowell —
May 12, 2009 @ 5:05 pm
Untrue! I now know a great deal more about this issue as a result of Hyperion telling me to click that link.
Your argument is a false choice, because there is a vast middle ground between “do nothing” and “spend hours each week reading specialized journals.”
There is a huge value-added to be made by people who do what Hyperion did – ferret out good information in a particular sphere of knowledge and make it more accessible to a general reading audience.